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Added accuracy tracking of predictions over time

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This commit is contained in:
moosecrab 2020-02-25 01:33:31 -08:00
parent dabdbe501c
commit d37e289741
3 changed files with 52 additions and 6 deletions
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1
PepperBet.sln
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@ -40,7 +40,6 @@ Global
{E6794089-F810-402B-A3CE-0D7EA579108A}.Debug|Any CPU.Build.0 = Debug|Any CPU
{E6794089-F810-402B-A3CE-0D7EA579108A}.Debug|x86.ActiveCfg = Debug|Any CPU
{E6794089-F810-402B-A3CE-0D7EA579108A}.Release|Any CPU.ActiveCfg = Release|Any CPU
{E6794089-F810-402B-A3CE-0D7EA579108A}.Release|Any CPU.Build.0 = Release|Any CPU
{E6794089-F810-402B-A3CE-0D7EA579108A}.Release|x86.ActiveCfg = Release|Any CPU
EndGlobalSection
GlobalSection(SolutionProperties) = preSolution

55
PepperBet/PepperBet.vb
View File

@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
'Seconds between updates
Const updatedelay = 2
Const version As String = "1.9.12"
Const version As String = "1.10"
Const downloadurl As String = "https://long-cat.net/projects/pepperbet/pepperbet.exe?v=" & version
Const versionurl As String = "https://long-cat.net/projects/pepperbet/version.txt?v=" & version
Const dbfilename As String = "pepperdata.xml"
@ -12,7 +12,7 @@
Dim watching As Boolean = True
Dim autoupdate As Boolean = False
Dim lastupdatecheck As New DateTime(0)
Dim accuracies(10) As Double
Dim accuracies(9) As Double
'These are the time constants for the exponentially weighted falloff
Dim accuracytimeconstants() As Double = {10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000, 2000, 5000, 10000}
@ -89,12 +89,12 @@
Console.ForegroundColor = ConsoleColor.White
Console.WriteLine(" ╟──────────────────────────────")
'DONT FORGET TO CHANGE IT UP IN THE CONST
Console.WriteLine("──────────────────────────────╢ v" & version & " ╟──────────────────────────────")
Console.WriteLine("──────────────────────────────╢ v" & version & " ╟──────────────────────────────")
'DONT FORGET TO CHANGE IT UP IN THE CONST
Console.WriteLine(" ╚════════════════╝")
Console.WriteLine()
Console.ForegroundColor = ConsoleColor.Gray
Console.WriteLine("(C) 2013-2018 by moose crap http://long-cat.net")
Console.WriteLine("(c) 2013-2020 by moose crap http://long-cat.net")
Console.WriteLine("Thanks to Fredstonemason for help and testing")
Console.WriteLine()
helpstring()
@ -433,6 +433,14 @@
Console.Write("Automatic updates disabled")
End If
Console.CursorLeft = 0
ElseIf tempkey.Key = ConsoleKey.R Then
Console.ForegroundColor = ConsoleColor.Gray
Console.BackgroundColor = ConsoleColor.Black
Console.WriteLine("Prediction accuracy")
For i = 0 To accuracies.Length - 1
Console.WriteLine("{0,5}: {1:0.000000}", accuracytimeconstants(i), accuracies(i))
Next
ElseIf tempkey.Key = ConsoleKey.C Then
Console.ForegroundColor = ConsoleColor.Gray
Console.BackgroundColor = ConsoleColor.Black
@ -626,6 +634,11 @@
If remaining <> "" Then
titlestr &= remaining
End If
titlestr &= accuracies(0).ToString(" 0.000")
titlestr &= accuracies(3).ToString(" 0.000")
titlestr &= accuracies(6).ToString(" 0.000")
Console.Title = titlestr
End Sub
@ -681,6 +694,14 @@
Dim p1rdi As Double = p1.RD
Dim p2rdi As Double = p2.RD
Dim result As Integer 'red, blue, draw
Dim expectedresult As Integer
If p1ki > p2ki Then
expectedresult = 1
ElseIf p2ki > p1ki Then
expectedresult = 2
Else
expectedresult = 3
End If
Console.ForegroundColor = ConsoleColor.Gray
Console.BackgroundColor = ConsoleColor.Black
If scorestr = "" Then
@ -799,6 +820,19 @@
Console.Write("{0,4:+###;-###;0}", p2.RD - p2rdi)
Console.ForegroundColor = ConsoleColor.Gray
Console.Write(")" + vbCrLf)
' Update prediction accuracies
Dim correct As Integer
If result = expectedresult Then
correct = 1
Else
correct = 0
End If
For i = 0 To accuracytimeconstants.Length - 1
Dim exp As Double = Math.Exp(1 / accuracytimeconstants(i))
accuracies(i) = accuracies(i) * (2 - exp) + correct * (exp - 1)
Next
End Sub
Private Sub DoMatchup(p1 As Glicko, p2 As Glicko, invcolors As Boolean, Optional skip As Boolean = False)
@ -898,6 +932,9 @@
Next
xd.Add(New XElement("watching", watching.ToString))
xd.Add(New XElement("autoupdate", autoupdate.ToString))
For i = 0 To accuracies.Length - 1
xd.Add(New XElement("accuracy" & accuracytimeconstants(i), CStr(accuracies(i))))
Next
xd.Save(dbfilename)
End Sub
@ -912,15 +949,24 @@
For Each x In xd.<PepperBet>.<name>
names.Add(x.Value)
Next
Try
watching = CBool(xd.<PepperBet>.<watching>.Value)
Catch
End Try
Try
autoupdate = CBool(xd.<PepperBet>.<autoupdate>.Value)
Catch
End Try
Try
For i = 0 To accuracies.Length - 1
accuracies(i) = CDbl(xd.Root.Element("accuracy" & accuracytimeconstants(i)).Value)
Next
Catch
End Try
For Each x In xd.<PepperBet>.<glicko>
Dim temp As New Glicko(x.@name, CLng(x.@lastmatch))
temp.K = CDbl(x.@k)
@ -1001,6 +1047,7 @@
Console.WriteLine("[Enter/Esc] Enter/exit manual data entry")
Console.WriteLine("[Q]uery database")
Console.WriteLine("[C]leanup database")
Console.WriteLine("[R]eport accuracy")
Console.WriteLine("[N]ames (for bet watching)")
Console.WriteLine("[W]atch display toggle")
Console.WriteLine("[A]utomatic updates toggle")

2
PepperBet/version.txt
View File

@ -1 +1 @@
1.9.12
1.10