Added accuracy tracking of predictions over time

PepperBet.sln

@@ -40,7 +40,6 @@ Global
 		{E6794089-F810-402B-A3CE-0D7EA579108A}.Debug|Any CPU.Build.0 = Debug|Any CPU
 		{E6794089-F810-402B-A3CE-0D7EA579108A}.Debug|x86.ActiveCfg = Debug|Any CPU
 		{E6794089-F810-402B-A3CE-0D7EA579108A}.Release|Any CPU.ActiveCfg = Release|Any CPU
-		{E6794089-F810-402B-A3CE-0D7EA579108A}.Release|Any CPU.Build.0 = Release|Any CPU
 		{E6794089-F810-402B-A3CE-0D7EA579108A}.Release|x86.ActiveCfg = Release|Any CPU
 	EndGlobalSection
 	GlobalSection(SolutionProperties) = preSolution

PepperBet/PepperBet.vb

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
 
     'Seconds between updates
     Const updatedelay = 2
-    Const version As String = "1.9.12"
+    Const version As String = "1.10"
     Const downloadurl As String = "https://long-cat.net/projects/pepperbet/pepperbet.exe?v=" & version
     Const versionurl As String = "https://long-cat.net/projects/pepperbet/version.txt?v=" & version
     Const dbfilename As String = "pepperdata.xml"
@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@
     Dim watching As Boolean = True
     Dim autoupdate As Boolean = False
     Dim lastupdatecheck As New DateTime(0)
-    Dim accuracies(10) As Double
+    Dim accuracies(9) As Double
     'These are the time constants for the exponentially weighted falloff
     Dim accuracytimeconstants() As Double = {10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000, 2000, 5000, 10000}
 
@@ -94,7 +94,7 @@
             Console.WriteLine("                              ╚════════════════╝")
             Console.WriteLine()
             Console.ForegroundColor = ConsoleColor.Gray
-            Console.WriteLine("(C) 2013-2018 by moose crap http://long-cat.net")
+            Console.WriteLine("(c) 2013-2020 by moose crap http://long-cat.net")
             Console.WriteLine("Thanks to Fredstonemason for help and testing")
             Console.WriteLine()
             helpstring()
@@ -433,6 +433,14 @@
                             Console.Write("Automatic updates disabled")
                         End If
                         Console.CursorLeft = 0
+
+                    ElseIf tempkey.Key = ConsoleKey.R Then
+                        Console.ForegroundColor = ConsoleColor.Gray
+                        Console.BackgroundColor = ConsoleColor.Black
+                        Console.WriteLine("Prediction accuracy")
+                        For i = 0 To accuracies.Length - 1
+                            Console.WriteLine("{0,5}: {1:0.000000}", accuracytimeconstants(i), accuracies(i))
+                        Next
                     ElseIf tempkey.Key = ConsoleKey.C Then
                         Console.ForegroundColor = ConsoleColor.Gray
                         Console.BackgroundColor = ConsoleColor.Black
@@ -626,6 +634,11 @@
         If remaining <> "" Then
             titlestr &= remaining
         End If
+
+        titlestr &= accuracies(0).ToString(" 0.000")
+        titlestr &= accuracies(3).ToString(" 0.000")
+        titlestr &= accuracies(6).ToString(" 0.000")
+
         Console.Title = titlestr
     End Sub
 
@@ -681,6 +694,14 @@
         Dim p1rdi As Double = p1.RD
         Dim p2rdi As Double = p2.RD
         Dim result As Integer                     'red, blue, draw
+        Dim expectedresult As Integer
+        If p1ki > p2ki Then
+            expectedresult = 1
+        ElseIf p2ki > p1ki Then
+            expectedresult = 2
+        Else
+            expectedresult = 3
+        End If
         Console.ForegroundColor = ConsoleColor.Gray
         Console.BackgroundColor = ConsoleColor.Black
         If scorestr = "" Then
@@ -799,6 +820,19 @@
         Console.Write("{0,4:+###;-###;0}", p2.RD - p2rdi)
         Console.ForegroundColor = ConsoleColor.Gray
         Console.Write(")" + vbCrLf)
+
+        ' Update prediction accuracies
+        Dim correct As Integer
+        If result = expectedresult Then
+            correct = 1
+        Else
+            correct = 0
+        End If
+        For i = 0 To accuracytimeconstants.Length - 1
+            Dim exp As Double = Math.Exp(1 / accuracytimeconstants(i))
+            accuracies(i) = accuracies(i) * (2 - exp) + correct * (exp - 1)
+        Next
+
     End Sub
 
     Private Sub DoMatchup(p1 As Glicko, p2 As Glicko, invcolors As Boolean, Optional skip As Boolean = False)
@@ -898,6 +932,9 @@
         Next
         xd.Add(New XElement("watching", watching.ToString))
         xd.Add(New XElement("autoupdate", autoupdate.ToString))
+        For i = 0 To accuracies.Length - 1
+            xd.Add(New XElement("accuracy" & accuracytimeconstants(i), CStr(accuracies(i))))
+        Next
         xd.Save(dbfilename)
     End Sub
 
@@ -912,15 +949,24 @@
         For Each x In xd.<PepperBet>.<name>
             names.Add(x.Value)
         Next
+
         Try
             watching = CBool(xd.<PepperBet>.<watching>.Value)
         Catch
         End Try
+
         Try
             autoupdate = CBool(xd.<PepperBet>.<autoupdate>.Value)
         Catch
         End Try
 
+        Try
+            For i = 0 To accuracies.Length - 1
+                accuracies(i) = CDbl(xd.Root.Element("accuracy" & accuracytimeconstants(i)).Value)
+            Next
+        Catch
+        End Try
+
         For Each x In xd.<PepperBet>.<glicko>
             Dim temp As New Glicko(x.@name, CLng(x.@lastmatch))
             temp.K = CDbl(x.@k)
@@ -1001,6 +1047,7 @@
         Console.WriteLine("[Enter/Esc] Enter/exit manual data entry")
         Console.WriteLine("[Q]uery database")
         Console.WriteLine("[C]leanup database")
+        Console.WriteLine("[R]eport accuracy")
         Console.WriteLine("[N]ames (for bet watching)")
         Console.WriteLine("[W]atch display toggle")
         Console.WriteLine("[A]utomatic updates toggle")

PepperBet/version.txt

@@ -1 +1 @@
-1.9.12
+1.10