Moved the Glicko class to a separate file
Removed some unused 'custom upset' code
This commit is contained in:
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224
PepperBet/Glicko.vb
Executable file
224
PepperBet/Glicko.vb
Executable file
@ -0,0 +1,224 @@
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Public Class Glicko
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'This constant defines how RD increases over time, higher=faster
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Private Const c = 0.6
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'Minimum RD (to ensure liquidity)
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Private Const RDmin = 30
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'Defined as part of the Glicko system
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Private Const q = 0.005756462732485
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Enum Tiers
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Unknown
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Potato
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B
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A
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S
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X
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End Enum
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Property K As Double
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Private _RD As Double
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Property RD As Double
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Set(value As Double)
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If value < RDmin Then
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_RD = RDmin
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Else
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_RD = value
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End If
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End Set
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Get
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Return _RD
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End Get
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End Property
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Property Name As String
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Property LastMatch As Long
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Property Tier As Tiers = Tiers.Unknown
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ReadOnly Property TierString As String
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Get
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Select Case Me.Tier
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Case Tiers.A
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Return " A "
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Case Tiers.B
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Return " B "
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Case Tiers.Potato
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Return " P "
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Case Tiers.S
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Return " S"
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Case Tiers.X
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Return " X "
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Case Tiers.Unknown
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Return "U "
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End Select
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Return ""
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End Get
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End Property
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ReadOnly Property TierLetter As String
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Get
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Select Case Me.Tier
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Case Tiers.A
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Return "A"
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Case Tiers.B
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Return "B"
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Case Tiers.Potato
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Return "P"
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Case Tiers.S
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Return "S"
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Case Tiers.X
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Return "X"
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Case Tiers.Unknown
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Return "U"
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End Select
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Return ""
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End Get
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End Property
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''' <summary>
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''' Updates this Glicko rating after a match. MAKE SURE TO COPY THE OPPONENT BEFORE UPDATING
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''' </summary>
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''' <param name="opp">Opponent that was faced</param>
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''' <param name="win">Did this Glicko win? Draw=0.5</param>
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''' <param name="t">Match number of this match</param>
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''' <remarks></remarks>
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Private Sub Update(opp() As Glicko, win() As Double, t As Long)
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Dim E As Double = 0
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Dim g As Double = 0
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Dim dsum As Double = 0
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Dim rsum As Double = 0
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For i = 0 To opp.Count - 1
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g = 1 / Math.Sqrt(1 + (3 * Math.Pow(q, 2) * Math.Pow(opp(i).RD, 2)) / Math.Pow(Math.PI, 2))
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E = 1 / (1 + Math.Pow(10, (g * (Me.K - opp(i).K)) / -400))
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dsum += Math.Pow(g, 2) * E * (1 - E)
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rsum += g * (win(i) - E)
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Next
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Dim dsq As Double = Math.Pow(Math.Pow(q, 2) * dsum, -1)
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Me.K = Me.K + (q / ((1 / Math.Pow(Me.RD, 2)) + (1 / dsq))) * rsum
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Me.RD = Math.Max(Math.Sqrt(Math.Pow((1 / Math.Pow(Me.RD, 2)) + (1 / dsq), -1)), 30)
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Me.LastMatch = t
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End Sub
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Public Shared Sub UpdateBatch(a As Glicko, b As Glicko, Acount As Integer, Bcount As Integer, t As Long, Optional Dcount As Integer = 0)
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Dim total As Integer = Acount + Bcount + Dcount
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Dim Aresults(total - 1) As Double
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Dim aopps(total - 1) As Glicko
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Dim Bresults(total - 1) As Double
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Dim bopps(total - 1) As Glicko
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Dim upset As Boolean = False
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Dim confidence As Double = Conf(a, b)
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Dim tempb As New Glicko("", -1)
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tempb.K = b.K
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tempb.RD = b.RD
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For i = 0 To total - 1
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aopps(i) = tempb
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bopps(i) = a
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Next
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For i = 0 To Acount - 1
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Aresults(i) = 1
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Next
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For i = Acount To Acount + Bcount - 1
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Bresults(i) = 1
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Next
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For i = Acount + Bcount To total - 1
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Aresults(i) = 0.5
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Bresults(i) = 0.5
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Next
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If (Aresults.Average > 0.5 And b.K > a.K) Or (Bresults.Average > 0.5 And a.K > b.K) Then
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upset = True
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End If
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b.Update(bopps, Bresults, t)
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a.Update(aopps, Aresults, t)
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'My custom RD-increasing function in case of upsets
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'Note this increases after Glicko's decrease, so they oppose each other
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'If upset = True Then
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' 'U-factor is upset factor, the maximum possible increase in RD for a character if we trusted the results 100% accurately
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' Dim aUfactor As Double = u * a.RD * (confidence ^ e)
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' Dim bUfactor As Double = u * b.RD * (confidence ^ e)
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' 'F-factor is the fluke factor, more rounds means it's less of a fluke and we should increase more
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' Dim Ffactor As Double = 1 - (1 / (Aresults.Count + f))
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' 'C-factor is the closeness factor, close matches are weighted less (5-0 more increase than 5-4)
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' Dim Cfactor As Double = (Math.Max(Aresults.Average, Bresults.Average) - 0.5) * 2
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' a.RD = Math.Min(350, a.RD + (aUfactor * Ffactor * Cfactor))
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' b.RD = Math.Min(350, b.RD + (bUfactor * Ffactor * Cfactor))
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'End If
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End Sub
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''' <summary>
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''' Time-decays RD in preperation for a match
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''' </summary>
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''' <param name="t">Current match number</param>
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''' <remarks></remarks>
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Public Sub Prep(t As Long)
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Me.RD = Math.Min(350, Math.Sqrt(Math.Pow(Me.RD, 2) + Math.Pow(c, 2) * (t - Me.LastMatch)))
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End Sub
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Public Sub New(name As String, t As Long)
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Me.K = 1500
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Me.RD = 350
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Me.Name = name
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Me.LastMatch = t
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End Sub
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Public Function GenerateXMLItem() As XElement
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Dim ret As New XElement("glicko")
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ret.SetAttributeValue("name", Me.Name)
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ret.SetAttributeValue("k", Me.K)
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ret.SetAttributeValue("rd", Me.RD)
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ret.SetAttributeValue("lastmatch", Me.LastMatch)
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ret.SetAttributeValue("tier", CInt(Me.Tier))
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Return ret
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End Function
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Private Shared Function erf(x As Double) As Double
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'Erf(x) approximation, max error 3e-7
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Dim a1 As Double = 0.0705230784
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Dim a2 As Double = 0.0422820123
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Dim a3 As Double = 0.0092705272
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Dim a4 As Double = 0.0001520143
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Dim a5 As Double = 0.0002765672
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Dim a6 As Double = 0.0000430638
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a1 = a1 * x
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a2 = a2 * (x ^ 2)
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a3 = a3 * (x ^ 3)
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a4 = a4 * (x ^ 4)
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a5 = a5 * (x ^ 5)
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a6 = a6 * (x ^ 6)
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Return 1 - (1 / ((1 + a1 + a2 + a3 + a4 + a5 + a6) ^ 16))
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End Function
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Private Shared Function CDF(x As Double, mu As Double, sigma As Double) As Double
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Return 0.5 * (1 + erf((x - mu) / (sigma * Math.Sqrt(2))))
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End Function
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Private Shared Function StdNorm(x As Double) As Double
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Return Math.Exp(-0.5 * (x ^ 2)) / (Math.Sqrt(2 * Math.PI))
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End Function
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Private Shared Function Norm(x As Double, mu As Double, sigma As Double) As Double
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Return (1 / sigma) * StdNorm((x - mu) / sigma)
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End Function
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Public Shared Function Conf(a As Glicko, b As Glicko) As Double
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Dim sum As Double
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For i = 0 To 3000 Step 1
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sum += Math.Max(Norm(i, a.K, a.RD) - Norm(i, b.K, b.RD), 0)
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Next
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Return sum
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End Function
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End Class
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@ -1,19 +1,7 @@
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Module Pepperbet
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Module Pepperbet
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'This constant defines how RD increases over time, higher=faster
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Const c = 0.6
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'Minimum RD (to ensure liquidity)
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Const RDmin = 30
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'Defined as part of the Glicko system
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Const q = 0.005756462732485
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'Seconds between updates
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'Seconds between updates
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Const updatedelay = 2
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Const updatedelay = 2
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'Upset RD maximum increase factor (infinite matches, as a fraction of RD)
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Const u = 0.5
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'Upset RD increase fluke-factor, more matches creates less chance of a fluke
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Const f = 0.5
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'Upset RD exponent, steepens modification curve with confidence
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Const e = 1.5
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Const version As String = "1.9.12"
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Const version As String = "1.9.12"
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Const downloadurl As String = "https://long-cat.net/projects/pepperbet/pepperbet.exe?v=" & version
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Const downloadurl As String = "https://long-cat.net/projects/pepperbet/pepperbet.exe?v=" & version
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Const versionurl As String = "https://long-cat.net/projects/pepperbet/version.txt?v=" & version
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Const versionurl As String = "https://long-cat.net/projects/pepperbet/version.txt?v=" & version
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@ -24,6 +12,10 @@
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Dim watching As Boolean = True
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Dim watching As Boolean = True
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Dim autoupdate As Boolean = False
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Dim autoupdate As Boolean = False
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Dim lastupdatecheck As New DateTime(0)
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Dim lastupdatecheck As New DateTime(0)
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Dim accuracies(10) As Double
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'These are the time constants for the exponentially weighted falloff
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Dim accuracytimeconstants() As Double = {10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000, 2000, 5000, 10000}
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Enum ModeTypes
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Enum ModeTypes
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Matchmaking
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Matchmaking
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Tournament
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Tournament
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@ -888,242 +880,6 @@
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End Function
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End Function
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Private Class Glicko
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Enum Tiers
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Unknown
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Potato
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B
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A
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S
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X
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End Enum
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Property K As Double
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Private _RD As Double
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Property RD As Double
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Set(value As Double)
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If value < RDmin Then
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_RD = RDmin
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Else
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_RD = value
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End If
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End Set
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Get
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Return _RD
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End Get
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End Property
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Property Name As String
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Property LastMatch As Long
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Property Tier As Tiers = Tiers.Unknown
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ReadOnly Property TierString As String
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Get
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Select Case Me.Tier
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Case Tiers.A
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Return " A "
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Case Tiers.B
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Return " B "
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Case Tiers.Potato
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Return " P "
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Case Tiers.S
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Return " S"
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Case Tiers.X
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Return " X "
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Case Tiers.Unknown
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Return "U "
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End Select
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Return ""
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End Get
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End Property
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ReadOnly Property TierLetter As String
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Get
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Select Case Me.Tier
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Case Tiers.A
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Return "A"
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Case Tiers.B
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Return "B"
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Case Tiers.Potato
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Return "P"
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Case Tiers.S
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Return "S"
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Case Tiers.X
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Return "X"
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Case Tiers.Unknown
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Return "U"
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End Select
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Return ""
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End Get
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End Property
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''' <summary>
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''' Updates this Glicko rating after a match. MAKE SURE TO COPY THE OPPONENT BEFORE UPDATING
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''' </summary>
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''' <param name="opp">Opponent that was faced</param>
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''' <param name="win">Did this Glicko win? Draw=0.5</param>
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''' <param name="t">Match number of this match</param>
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''' <remarks></remarks>
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Private Sub Update(opp() As Glicko, win() As Double, t As Long)
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Dim E As Double = 0
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Dim g As Double = 0
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Dim dsum As Double = 0
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Dim rsum As Double = 0
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For i = 0 To opp.Count - 1
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g = 1 / Math.Sqrt(1 + (3 * Math.Pow(q, 2) * Math.Pow(opp(i).RD, 2)) / Math.Pow(Math.PI, 2))
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E = 1 / (1 + Math.Pow(10, (g * (Me.K - opp(i).K)) / -400))
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dsum += Math.Pow(g, 2) * E * (1 - E)
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rsum += g * (win(i) - E)
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Next
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Dim dsq As Double = Math.Pow(Math.Pow(q, 2) * dsum, -1)
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Me.K = Me.K + (q / ((1 / Math.Pow(Me.RD, 2)) + (1 / dsq))) * rsum
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Me.RD = Math.Max(Math.Sqrt(Math.Pow((1 / Math.Pow(Me.RD, 2)) + (1 / dsq), -1)), 30)
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Me.LastMatch = t
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End Sub
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Public Shared Sub UpdateBatch(a As Glicko, b As Glicko, Acount As Integer, Bcount As Integer, t As Long, Optional Dcount As Integer = 0)
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Dim total As Integer = Acount + Bcount + Dcount
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Dim Aresults(total - 1) As Double
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Dim aopps(total - 1) As Glicko
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Dim Bresults(total - 1) As Double
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Dim bopps(total - 1) As Glicko
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Dim upset As Boolean = False
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Dim confidence As Double = Conf(a, b)
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Dim tempb As New Glicko("", -1)
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tempb.K = b.K
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tempb.RD = b.RD
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For i = 0 To total - 1
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aopps(i) = tempb
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bopps(i) = a
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Next
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For i = 0 To Acount - 1
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Aresults(i) = 1
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Next
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For i = Acount To Acount + Bcount - 1
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Bresults(i) = 1
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Next
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For i = Acount + Bcount To total - 1
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Aresults(i) = 0.5
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Bresults(i) = 0.5
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Next
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If (Aresults.Average > 0.5 And b.K > a.K) Or (Bresults.Average > 0.5 And a.K > b.K) Then
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upset = True
|
|
||||||
End If
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
b.Update(bopps, Bresults, t)
|
|
||||||
a.Update(aopps, Aresults, t)
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
'My custom RD-increasing function in case of upsets
|
|
||||||
'Note this increases after Glicko's decrease, so they oppose each other
|
|
||||||
'If upset = True Then
|
|
||||||
' 'U-factor is upset factor, the maximum possible increase in RD for a character if we trusted the results 100% accurately
|
|
||||||
' Dim aUfactor As Double = u * a.RD * (confidence ^ e)
|
|
||||||
' Dim bUfactor As Double = u * b.RD * (confidence ^ e)
|
|
||||||
' 'F-factor is the fluke factor, more rounds means it's less of a fluke and we should increase more
|
|
||||||
' Dim Ffactor As Double = 1 - (1 / (Aresults.Count + f))
|
|
||||||
' 'C-factor is the closeness factor, close matches are weighted less (5-0 more increase than 5-4)
|
|
||||||
' Dim Cfactor As Double = (Math.Max(Aresults.Average, Bresults.Average) - 0.5) * 2
|
|
||||||
' a.RD = Math.Min(350, a.RD + (aUfactor * Ffactor * Cfactor))
|
|
||||||
' b.RD = Math.Min(350, b.RD + (bUfactor * Ffactor * Cfactor))
|
|
||||||
'End If
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
End Sub
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Public Shared Sub UpdateTiers(a As Glicko, b As Glicko)
|
|
||||||
If Now.DayOfWeek = DayOfWeek.Thursday And Now.Hour >= 18 And Now.Hour < 21 Then
|
|
||||||
'shaker classic
|
|
||||||
Exit Sub
|
|
||||||
End If
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
If a.Tier = Tiers.Unknown And b.Tier = Tiers.Unknown Then
|
|
||||||
Exit Sub
|
|
||||||
ElseIf a.Tier = Tiers.Unknown Then
|
|
||||||
a.Tier = b.Tier
|
|
||||||
ElseIf b.Tier = Tiers.Unknown Then
|
|
||||||
b.Tier = a.Tier
|
|
||||||
ElseIf b.Tier = a.Tier Then
|
|
||||||
Exit Sub
|
|
||||||
Else
|
|
||||||
a.Tier = Tiers.Unknown
|
|
||||||
b.Tier = Tiers.Unknown
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
End If
|
|
||||||
Save()
|
|
||||||
End Sub
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
''' <summary>
|
|
||||||
''' Time-decays RD in preperation for a match
|
|
||||||
''' </summary>
|
|
||||||
''' <param name="t">Current match number</param>
|
|
||||||
''' <remarks></remarks>
|
|
||||||
Public Sub Prep(t As Long)
|
|
||||||
Me.RD = Math.Min(350, Math.Sqrt(Math.Pow(Me.RD, 2) + Math.Pow(c, 2) * (t - Me.LastMatch)))
|
|
||||||
End Sub
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Public Sub New(name As String, t As Long)
|
|
||||||
Me.K = 1500
|
|
||||||
Me.RD = 350
|
|
||||||
Me.Name = name
|
|
||||||
Me.LastMatch = t
|
|
||||||
End Sub
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Public Function GenerateXMLItem() As XElement
|
|
||||||
Dim ret As New XElement("glicko")
|
|
||||||
ret.SetAttributeValue("name", Me.Name)
|
|
||||||
ret.SetAttributeValue("k", Me.K)
|
|
||||||
ret.SetAttributeValue("rd", Me.RD)
|
|
||||||
ret.SetAttributeValue("lastmatch", Me.LastMatch)
|
|
||||||
ret.SetAttributeValue("tier", CInt(Me.Tier))
|
|
||||||
Return ret
|
|
||||||
End Function
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Private Shared Function erf(x As Double) As Double
|
|
||||||
'Erf(x) approximation, max error 3e-7
|
|
||||||
Dim a1 As Double = 0.0705230784
|
|
||||||
Dim a2 As Double = 0.0422820123
|
|
||||||
Dim a3 As Double = 0.0092705272
|
|
||||||
Dim a4 As Double = 0.0001520143
|
|
||||||
Dim a5 As Double = 0.0002765672
|
|
||||||
Dim a6 As Double = 0.0000430638
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
a1 = a1 * x
|
|
||||||
a2 = a2 * (x ^ 2)
|
|
||||||
a3 = a3 * (x ^ 3)
|
|
||||||
a4 = a4 * (x ^ 4)
|
|
||||||
a5 = a5 * (x ^ 5)
|
|
||||||
a6 = a6 * (x ^ 6)
|
|
||||||
Return 1 - (1 / ((1 + a1 + a2 + a3 + a4 + a5 + a6) ^ 16))
|
|
||||||
End Function
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Private Shared Function CDF(x As Double, mu As Double, sigma As Double) As Double
|
|
||||||
Return 0.5 * (1 + erf((x - mu) / (sigma * Math.Sqrt(2))))
|
|
||||||
End Function
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Private Shared Function StdNorm(x As Double) As Double
|
|
||||||
Return Math.Exp(-0.5 * (x ^ 2)) / (Math.Sqrt(2 * Math.PI))
|
|
||||||
End Function
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Private Shared Function Norm(x As Double, mu As Double, sigma As Double) As Double
|
|
||||||
Return (1 / sigma) * StdNorm((x - mu) / sigma)
|
|
||||||
End Function
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Public Shared Function Conf(a As Glicko, b As Glicko) As Double
|
|
||||||
Dim sum As Double
|
|
||||||
For i = 0 To 3000 Step 1
|
|
||||||
sum += Math.Max(Norm(i, a.K, a.RD) - Norm(i, b.K, b.RD), 0)
|
|
||||||
Next
|
|
||||||
Return sum
|
|
||||||
End Function
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
End Class
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Private Sub Save()
|
Private Sub Save()
|
||||||
Dim thr As New Threading.Thread(AddressOf SaveDelegate)
|
Dim thr As New Threading.Thread(AddressOf SaveDelegate)
|
||||||
thr.Start()
|
thr.Start()
|
||||||
|
|||||||
@ -97,6 +97,7 @@
|
|||||||
<Import Include="System.Xml.Linq" />
|
<Import Include="System.Xml.Linq" />
|
||||||
</ItemGroup>
|
</ItemGroup>
|
||||||
<ItemGroup>
|
<ItemGroup>
|
||||||
|
<Compile Include="Glicko.vb" />
|
||||||
<Compile Include="PepperBet.vb" />
|
<Compile Include="PepperBet.vb" />
|
||||||
<Compile Include="My Project\AssemblyInfo.vb" />
|
<Compile Include="My Project\AssemblyInfo.vb" />
|
||||||
<Compile Include="My Project\Application.Designer.vb">
|
<Compile Include="My Project\Application.Designer.vb">
|
||||||
|
|||||||
Loading…
x
Reference in New Issue
Block a user