Removed a part of the cleanup function that would remove some very old, but real characters. I'd like to keep these in the DB for legacy purposes.

Removed some unused 'custom upset' code

GlickoTest/GlickoTest.vb

@@ -0,0 +1,74 @@
+Imports System.Xml.Linq
+
+Imports Microsoft.VisualStudio.TestTools.UnitTesting
+
+Imports System.Text
+Imports PepperBet
+
+<TestClass()>
+Public Class GlickoTest
+
+    Private testContextInstance As TestContext
+
+    '''<summary>
+    '''Gets or sets the test context which provides
+    '''information about and functionality for the current test run.
+    '''</summary>
+    Public Property TestContext() As TestContext
+        Get
+            Return testContextInstance
+        End Get
+        Set(ByVal value As TestContext)
+            testContextInstance = value
+        End Set
+    End Property
+
+#Region "Additional test attributes"
+    '
+    ' You can use the following additional attributes as you write your tests:
+    '
+    ' Use ClassInitialize to run code before running the first test in the class
+    ' <ClassInitialize()> Public Shared Sub MyClassInitialize(ByVal testContext As TestContext)
+    ' End Sub
+    '
+    ' Use ClassCleanup to run code after all tests in a class have run
+    ' <ClassCleanup()> Public Shared Sub MyClassCleanup()
+    ' End Sub
+    '
+    ' Use TestInitialize to run code before running each test
+    ' <TestInitialize()> Public Sub MyTestInitialize()
+    ' End Sub
+    '
+    ' Use TestCleanup to run code after each test has run
+    ' <TestCleanup()> Public Sub MyTestCleanup()
+    ' End Sub
+    '
+#End Region
+
+
+    <TestMethod()>
+    Public Sub TestGlickoMatchup()
+        Dim testman As New Glicko("testman", 0)
+        testman.K = 1500
+        testman.RD = 200
+        Dim opp1 As New Glicko("1", 0)
+        opp1.K = 1400
+        opp1.RD = 30
+        Dim opp2 As New Glicko("2", 0)
+        opp2.K = 1550
+        opp2.RD = 100
+        Dim opp3 As New Glicko("3", 0)
+        opp3.K = 1700
+        opp3.RD = 300
+
+        'testman.Update({opp1, opp2, opp3}, {1, 0, 0}, 0)
+        Glicko.UpdateBatch(testman, opp1, 1, 0, 0)
+        Glicko.UpdateBatch(testman, opp2, 0, 1, 0)
+        Glicko.UpdateBatch(testman, opp3, 0, 1, 0)
+        'testmans K should be 1464 and RD should be 151.4
+
+        Assert.AreEqual(testman.K, 1464.2190389663426)
+        Assert.AreEqual(testman.RD, 151.2537434317843)
+    End Sub
+
+End Class

GlickoTest/GlickoTest.vbproj

@@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
+<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
+<Project ToolsVersion="4.0" DefaultTargets="Build" xmlns="http://schemas.microsoft.com/developer/msbuild/2003">
+  <PropertyGroup>
+    <Configuration Condition=" '$(Configuration)' == '' ">Debug</Configuration>
+    <Platform Condition=" '$(Platform)' == '' ">AnyCPU</Platform>
+    <ProductVersion>
+    </ProductVersion>
+    <SchemaVersion>
+    </SchemaVersion>
+    <ProjectGuid>{E6794089-F810-402B-A3CE-0D7EA579108A}</ProjectGuid>
+    <OutputType>Library</OutputType>
+    <RootNamespace>GlickoTest</RootNamespace>
+    <AssemblyName>GlickoTest</AssemblyName>
+    <FileAlignment>512</FileAlignment>
+    <MyType>Windows</MyType>
+    <TargetFrameworkVersion>v4.0</TargetFrameworkVersion>
+    <ProjectTypeGuids>{3AC096D0-A1C2-E12C-1390-A8335801FDAB};{F184B08F-C81C-45F6-A57F-5ABD9991F28F}</ProjectTypeGuids>
+    <ReferencePath>$(DevEnvDir)PublicAssemblies\</ReferencePath>
+  </PropertyGroup>
+  <PropertyGroup Condition=" '$(Configuration)|$(Platform)' == 'Debug|AnyCPU' ">
+    <DebugSymbols>true</DebugSymbols>
+    <DebugType>full</DebugType>
+    <DefineDebug>true</DefineDebug>
+    <DefineTrace>true</DefineTrace>
+    <OutputPath>bin\Debug\</OutputPath>
+    <DocumentationFile>GlickoTest.xml</DocumentationFile>
+    <NoWarn>42016,41999,42017,42018,42019,42032,42036,42020,42021,42022</NoWarn>
+  </PropertyGroup>
+  <PropertyGroup Condition=" '$(Configuration)|$(Platform)' == 'Release|AnyCPU' ">
+    <DebugType>pdbonly</DebugType>
+    <DefineDebug>false</DefineDebug>
+    <DefineTrace>true</DefineTrace>
+    <Optimize>true</Optimize>
+    <OutputPath>bin\Release\</OutputPath>
+    <DocumentationFile>GlickoTest.xml</DocumentationFile>
+    <NoWarn>42016,41999,42017,42018,42019,42032,42036,42020,42021,42022</NoWarn>
+  </PropertyGroup>
+  <PropertyGroup>
+    <OptionExplicit>On</OptionExplicit>
+  </PropertyGroup>
+  <PropertyGroup>
+    <OptionCompare>Binary</OptionCompare>
+  </PropertyGroup>
+  <PropertyGroup>
+    <OptionStrict>Off</OptionStrict>
+  </PropertyGroup>
+  <PropertyGroup>
+    <OptionInfer>On</OptionInfer>
+  </PropertyGroup>
+  <ItemGroup>
+    <Reference Include="Microsoft.VisualStudio.QualityTools.UnitTestFramework, Version=10.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=b03f5f7f11d50a3a, processorArchitecture=MSIL" />
+    <Reference Include="Newtonsoft.Json, Version=4.5.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=30ad4fe6b2a6aeed, processorArchitecture=MSIL" />
+    <Reference Include="System" />
+    <Reference Include="System.Core">
+      <RequiredTargetFramework>3.5</RequiredTargetFramework>
+    </Reference>
+    <Reference Include="System.Data" />
+    <Reference Include="System.Data.DataSetExtensions" />
+    <Reference Include="System.Deployment" />
+    <Reference Include="System.Windows.Forms" />
+    <Reference Include="System.Xml" />
+    <Reference Include="System.Xml.Linq" />
+  </ItemGroup>
+  <ItemGroup>
+    <Import Include="System" />
+    <Import Include="System.Collections" />
+    <Import Include="System.Collections.Generic" />
+    <Import Include="System.Data" />
+    <Import Include="System.Diagnostics" />
+    <Import Include="System.Linq" />
+    <Import Include="System.Xml.Linq" />
+    <Import Include="Microsoft.VisualBasic" />
+    <Import Include="Microsoft.VisualStudio.TestTools.UnitTesting" />
+  </ItemGroup>
+  <ItemGroup>
+    <CodeAnalysisDependentAssemblyPaths Condition=" '$(VS100COMNTOOLS)' != '' " Include="$(VS100COMNTOOLS)..\IDE\PrivateAssemblies">
+      <Visible>False</Visible>
+    </CodeAnalysisDependentAssemblyPaths>
+  </ItemGroup>
+  <ItemGroup>
+    <Compile Include="My Project\AssemblyInfo.vb" />
+    <Compile Include="GlickoTest.vb" />
+  </ItemGroup>
+  <ItemGroup>
+    <ProjectReference Include="..\PepperBet\PepperBet.vbproj">
+      <Project>{F88AA82A-320E-4A3B-87A3-C07BFC6F3450}</Project>
+      <Name>PepperBet</Name>
+    </ProjectReference>
+  </ItemGroup>
+  <Import Project="$(MSBuildBinPath)\Microsoft.VisualBasic.targets" />
+  <!-- To modify your build process, add your task inside one of the targets below and uncomment it. 
+       Other similar extension points exist, see Microsoft.Common.targets.
+  <Target Name="BeforeBuild">
+  </Target>
+  <Target Name="AfterBuild">
+  </Target>
+  -->
+</Project>

GlickoTest/My Project/AssemblyInfo.vb

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+Imports System
+Imports System.Reflection
+Imports System.Runtime.InteropServices
+
+' General Information about an assembly is controlled through the following 
+' set of attributes. Change these attribute values to modify the information
+' associated with an assembly.
+
+' Review the values of the assembly attributes
+
+<Assembly: AssemblyTitle("GlickoTest")> 
+<Assembly: AssemblyDescription("")> 
+<Assembly: AssemblyCompany("")> 
+<Assembly: AssemblyProduct("GlickoTest")> 
+<Assembly: AssemblyCopyright("Copyright ©  2020")> 
+<Assembly: AssemblyTrademark("")> 
+
+<Assembly: CLSCompliant(True)> 
+
+<Assembly: ComVisible(False)>
+
+'The following GUID is for the ID of the typelib if this project is exposed to COM
+<Assembly: Guid("7116de55-d866-4034-9286-a8df9d2a8826")> 
+
+' Version information for an assembly consists of the following four values:
+'
+'      Major Version
+'      Minor Version 
+'      Build Number
+'      Revision
+'
+' You can specify all the values or you can default the Build and Revision Numbers 
+' by using the '*' as shown below:
+' <Assembly: AssemblyVersion("1.0.*")> 
+
+<Assembly: AssemblyVersion("1.0.0.0")> 
+<Assembly: AssemblyFileVersion("1.0.0.0")> 

PepperBet.sln

@@ -5,7 +5,14 @@ Project("{F184B08F-C81C-45F6-A57F-5ABD9991F28F}") = "PepperBet", "PepperBet\Pepp
 EndProject
 Project("{F184B08F-C81C-45F6-A57F-5ABD9991F28F}") = "AutoUpdater", "AutoUpdater\AutoUpdater.vbproj", "{1E99431F-65AD-4CFD-9A8A-264CED54DAEB}"
 EndProject
+Project("{F184B08F-C81C-45F6-A57F-5ABD9991F28F}") = "GlickoTest", "GlickoTest\GlickoTest.vbproj", "{E6794089-F810-402B-A3CE-0D7EA579108A}"
+EndProject
+Project("{2150E333-8FDC-42A3-9474-1A3956D46DE8}") = "Solution Items", "Solution Items", "{F59519B4-43BD-4F38-A7AB-8694B5014CB2}"
+EndProject
 Global
+	GlobalSection(TestCaseManagementSettings) = postSolution
+		CategoryFile = PepperBet.vsmdi
+	EndGlobalSection
 	GlobalSection(SolutionConfigurationPlatforms) = preSolution
 		Debug|Any CPU = Debug|Any CPU
 		Debug|x86 = Debug|x86
@@ -13,10 +20,12 @@ Global
 		Release|x86 = Release|x86
 	EndGlobalSection
 	GlobalSection(ProjectConfigurationPlatforms) = postSolution
-		{F88AA82A-320E-4A3B-87A3-C07BFC6F3450}.Debug|Any CPU.ActiveCfg = Debug|x86
+		{F88AA82A-320E-4A3B-87A3-C07BFC6F3450}.Debug|Any CPU.ActiveCfg = Debug|Any CPU
+		{F88AA82A-320E-4A3B-87A3-C07BFC6F3450}.Debug|Any CPU.Build.0 = Debug|Any CPU
 		{F88AA82A-320E-4A3B-87A3-C07BFC6F3450}.Debug|x86.ActiveCfg = Debug|x86
 		{F88AA82A-320E-4A3B-87A3-C07BFC6F3450}.Debug|x86.Build.0 = Debug|x86
-		{F88AA82A-320E-4A3B-87A3-C07BFC6F3450}.Release|Any CPU.ActiveCfg = Release|x86
+		{F88AA82A-320E-4A3B-87A3-C07BFC6F3450}.Release|Any CPU.ActiveCfg = Release|Any CPU
+		{F88AA82A-320E-4A3B-87A3-C07BFC6F3450}.Release|Any CPU.Build.0 = Release|Any CPU
 		{F88AA82A-320E-4A3B-87A3-C07BFC6F3450}.Release|x86.ActiveCfg = Release|x86
 		{F88AA82A-320E-4A3B-87A3-C07BFC6F3450}.Release|x86.Build.0 = Release|x86
 		{1E99431F-65AD-4CFD-9A8A-264CED54DAEB}.Debug|Any CPU.ActiveCfg = Debug|Any CPU
@@ -27,6 +36,11 @@ Global
 		{1E99431F-65AD-4CFD-9A8A-264CED54DAEB}.Release|Any CPU.Build.0 = Release|Any CPU
 		{1E99431F-65AD-4CFD-9A8A-264CED54DAEB}.Release|x86.ActiveCfg = Release|x86
 		{1E99431F-65AD-4CFD-9A8A-264CED54DAEB}.Release|x86.Build.0 = Release|x86
+		{E6794089-F810-402B-A3CE-0D7EA579108A}.Debug|Any CPU.ActiveCfg = Debug|Any CPU
+		{E6794089-F810-402B-A3CE-0D7EA579108A}.Debug|Any CPU.Build.0 = Debug|Any CPU
+		{E6794089-F810-402B-A3CE-0D7EA579108A}.Debug|x86.ActiveCfg = Debug|Any CPU
+		{E6794089-F810-402B-A3CE-0D7EA579108A}.Release|Any CPU.ActiveCfg = Release|Any CPU
+		{E6794089-F810-402B-A3CE-0D7EA579108A}.Release|x86.ActiveCfg = Release|Any CPU
 	EndGlobalSection
 	GlobalSection(SolutionProperties) = preSolution
 		HideSolutionNode = FALSE

PepperBet/Glicko.vb

@@ -0,0 +1,224 @@
+Public Class Glicko
+
+    'This constant defines how RD increases over time, higher=faster
+    Private Const c = 0.6
+    'Minimum RD (to ensure liquidity)
+    Private Const RDmin = 30
+    'Defined as part of the Glicko system
+    Private Const q = 0.005756462732485
+
+    Enum Tiers
+        Unknown
+        Potato
+        B
+        A
+        S
+        X
+    End Enum
+
+    Property K As Double
+    Private _RD As Double
+    Property RD As Double
+        Set(value As Double)
+            If value < RDmin Then
+                _RD = RDmin
+            Else
+                _RD = value
+            End If
+        End Set
+        Get
+            Return _RD
+        End Get
+    End Property
+    Property Name As String
+    Property LastMatch As Long
+    Property Tier As Tiers = Tiers.Unknown
+    ReadOnly Property TierString As String
+        Get
+            Select Case Me.Tier
+                Case Tiers.A
+                    Return "    A "
+                Case Tiers.B
+                    Return "   B  "
+                Case Tiers.Potato
+                    Return "  P   "
+                Case Tiers.S
+                    Return "     S"
+                Case Tiers.X
+                    Return " X    "
+                Case Tiers.Unknown
+                    Return "U    "
+            End Select
+            Return ""
+        End Get
+    End Property
+    ReadOnly Property TierLetter As String
+        Get
+            Select Case Me.Tier
+                Case Tiers.A
+                    Return "A"
+                Case Tiers.B
+                    Return "B"
+                Case Tiers.Potato
+                    Return "P"
+                Case Tiers.S
+                    Return "S"
+                Case Tiers.X
+                    Return "X"
+                Case Tiers.Unknown
+                    Return "U"
+            End Select
+            Return ""
+        End Get
+    End Property
+
+    ''' <summary>
+    ''' Updates this Glicko rating after a match.  MAKE SURE TO COPY THE OPPONENT BEFORE UPDATING
+    ''' </summary>
+    ''' <param name="opp">Opponent that was faced</param>
+    ''' <param name="win">Did this Glicko win?  Draw=0.5</param>
+    ''' <param name="t">Match number of this match</param>
+    ''' <remarks></remarks>
+    Private Sub Update(opp() As Glicko, win() As Double, t As Long)
+        Dim E As Double = 0
+        Dim g As Double = 0
+        Dim dsum As Double = 0
+        Dim rsum As Double = 0
+
+        For i = 0 To opp.Count - 1
+            g = 1 / Math.Sqrt(1 + (3 * Math.Pow(q, 2) * Math.Pow(opp(i).RD, 2)) / Math.Pow(Math.PI, 2))
+            E = 1 / (1 + Math.Pow(10, (g * (Me.K - opp(i).K)) / -400))
+            dsum += Math.Pow(g, 2) * E * (1 - E)
+            rsum += g * (win(i) - E)
+        Next
+
+        Dim dsq As Double = Math.Pow(Math.Pow(q, 2) * dsum, -1)
+
+        Me.K = Me.K + (q / ((1 / Math.Pow(Me.RD, 2)) + (1 / dsq))) * rsum
+        Me.RD = Math.Max(Math.Sqrt(Math.Pow((1 / Math.Pow(Me.RD, 2)) + (1 / dsq), -1)), 30)
+        Me.LastMatch = t
+    End Sub
+
+    Public Shared Sub UpdateBatch(a As Glicko, b As Glicko, Acount As Integer, Bcount As Integer, t As Long, Optional Dcount As Integer = 0)
+        Dim total As Integer = Acount + Bcount + Dcount
+        Dim Aresults(total - 1) As Double
+        Dim aopps(total - 1) As Glicko
+        Dim Bresults(total - 1) As Double
+        Dim bopps(total - 1) As Glicko
+        Dim upset As Boolean = False
+        Dim confidence As Double = Conf(a, b)
+
+        Dim tempb As New Glicko("", -1)
+        tempb.K = b.K
+        tempb.RD = b.RD
+
+        For i = 0 To total - 1
+            aopps(i) = tempb
+            bopps(i) = a
+        Next
+        For i = 0 To Acount - 1
+            Aresults(i) = 1
+        Next
+
+        For i = Acount To Acount + Bcount - 1
+            Bresults(i) = 1
+        Next
+
+        For i = Acount + Bcount To total - 1
+            Aresults(i) = 0.5
+            Bresults(i) = 0.5
+        Next
+
+        If (Aresults.Average > 0.5 And b.K > a.K) Or (Bresults.Average > 0.5 And a.K > b.K) Then
+            upset = True
+        End If
+
+        b.Update(bopps, Bresults, t)
+        a.Update(aopps, Aresults, t)
+
+        'My custom RD-increasing function in case of upsets
+        'Note this increases after Glicko's decrease, so they oppose each other
+        'If upset = True Then
+        '    'U-factor is upset factor, the maximum possible increase in RD for a character if we trusted the results 100% accurately
+        '    Dim aUfactor As Double = u * a.RD * (confidence ^ e)
+        '    Dim bUfactor As Double = u * b.RD * (confidence ^ e)
+        '    'F-factor is the fluke factor, more rounds means it's less of a fluke and we should increase more
+        '    Dim Ffactor As Double = 1 - (1 / (Aresults.Count + f))
+        '    'C-factor is the closeness factor, close matches are weighted less (5-0 more increase than 5-4)
+        '    Dim Cfactor As Double = (Math.Max(Aresults.Average, Bresults.Average) - 0.5) * 2
+        '    a.RD = Math.Min(350, a.RD + (aUfactor * Ffactor * Cfactor))
+        '    b.RD = Math.Min(350, b.RD + (bUfactor * Ffactor * Cfactor))
+        'End If
+
+
+    End Sub
+
+
+
+    ''' <summary>
+    ''' Time-decays RD in preperation for a match
+    ''' </summary>
+    ''' <param name="t">Current match number</param>
+    ''' <remarks></remarks>
+    Public Sub Prep(t As Long)
+        Me.RD = Math.Min(350, Math.Sqrt(Math.Pow(Me.RD, 2) + Math.Pow(c, 2) * (t - Me.LastMatch)))
+    End Sub
+
+    Public Sub New(name As String, t As Long)
+        Me.K = 1500
+        Me.RD = 350
+        Me.Name = name
+        Me.LastMatch = t
+    End Sub
+
+    Public Function GenerateXMLItem() As XElement
+        Dim ret As New XElement("glicko")
+        ret.SetAttributeValue("name", Me.Name)
+        ret.SetAttributeValue("k", Me.K)
+        ret.SetAttributeValue("rd", Me.RD)
+        ret.SetAttributeValue("lastmatch", Me.LastMatch)
+        ret.SetAttributeValue("tier", CInt(Me.Tier))
+        Return ret
+    End Function
+
+    Private Shared Function erf(x As Double) As Double
+        'Erf(x) approximation, max error 3e-7
+        Dim a1 As Double = 0.0705230784
+        Dim a2 As Double = 0.0422820123
+        Dim a3 As Double = 0.0092705272
+        Dim a4 As Double = 0.0001520143
+        Dim a5 As Double = 0.0002765672
+        Dim a6 As Double = 0.0000430638
+
+        a1 = a1 * x
+        a2 = a2 * (x ^ 2)
+        a3 = a3 * (x ^ 3)
+        a4 = a4 * (x ^ 4)
+        a5 = a5 * (x ^ 5)
+        a6 = a6 * (x ^ 6)
+        Return 1 - (1 / ((1 + a1 + a2 + a3 + a4 + a5 + a6) ^ 16))
+    End Function
+
+    Private Shared Function CDF(x As Double, mu As Double, sigma As Double) As Double
+        Return 0.5 * (1 + erf((x - mu) / (sigma * Math.Sqrt(2))))
+    End Function
+
+    Private Shared Function StdNorm(x As Double) As Double
+        Return Math.Exp(-0.5 * (x ^ 2)) / (Math.Sqrt(2 * Math.PI))
+    End Function
+
+    Private Shared Function Norm(x As Double, mu As Double, sigma As Double) As Double
+        Return (1 / sigma) * StdNorm((x - mu) / sigma)
+    End Function
+
+    Public Shared Function Conf(a As Glicko, b As Glicko) As Double
+        Dim sum As Double
+        For i = 0 To 3000 Step 1
+            sum += Math.Max(Norm(i, a.K, a.RD) - Norm(i, b.K, b.RD), 0)
+        Next
+        Return sum
+    End Function
+
+End Class
+
+

PepperBet/PepperBet.vb

@@ -1,28 +1,21 @@
 Module Pepperbet
 
-    'This constant defines how RD increases over time, higher=faster
-    Const c = 0.6
-    'Minimum RD (to ensure liquidity)
-    Const RDmin = 30
-    'Defined as part of the Glicko system
-    Const q = 0.005756462732485
     'Seconds between updates
     Const updatedelay = 2
-    'Upset RD maximum increase factor (infinite matches, as a fraction of RD)
+    Const version As String = "1.12"
-    Const u = 0.5
-    'Upset RD increase fluke-factor, more matches creates less chance of a fluke
-    Const f = 0.5
-    'Upset RD exponent, steepens modification curve with confidence
-    Const e = 1.5
-    Const version As String = "1.9.12"
     Const downloadurl As String = "https://long-cat.net/projects/pepperbet/pepperbet.exe?v=" & version
     Const versionurl As String = "https://long-cat.net/projects/pepperbet/version.txt?v=" & version
+    Const dbfilename As String = "pepperdata.xml"
     Dim TheList As New List(Of Glicko)
     Dim match As Long = 0
     Dim names As New List(Of String)
     Dim watching As Boolean = True
     Dim autoupdate As Boolean = False
     Dim lastupdatecheck As New DateTime(0)
+    Dim accuracies(9) As Double
+    'These are the time constants for the exponentially weighted falloff
+    Dim accuracytimeconstants() As Double = {10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000, 2000, 5000, 10000}
+
     Enum ModeTypes
         Matchmaking
         Tournament
@@ -101,7 +94,7 @@
             Console.WriteLine("                              ╚════════════════╝")
             Console.WriteLine()
             Console.ForegroundColor = ConsoleColor.Gray
-            Console.WriteLine("(C) 2013-2018 by moose crap http://long-cat.net")
+            Console.WriteLine("(c) 2013-2020 by moose crap http://long-cat.net")
             Console.WriteLine("Thanks to Fredstonemason for help and testing")
             Console.WriteLine()
             helpstring()
@@ -111,7 +104,7 @@
             If autoupdate Then
                 CheckForUpdates()
             End If
-            Console.WriteLine("{0} fighters loaded from data.xml.", TheList.Count)
+            Console.WriteLine("{0} fighters loaded from " & dbfilename & ".", TheList.Count)
             If names.Count > 0 Then
                 Console.Write("Watching: ")
                 For Each x In names
@@ -123,7 +116,7 @@
 
             While xdoc Is Nothing
                 Try
-                    xdoc = Newtonsoft.Json.JsonConvert.DeserializeXmlNode(wc.DownloadString("http://www.saltybet.com/state.json"), "saltybet")
+                    xdoc = Newtonsoft.Json.JsonConvert.DeserializeXmlNode(wc.DownloadString("https://www.saltybet.com/state.json"), "saltybet")
                 Catch ex As Exception
                     xdoc = Nothing
                     System.Threading.Thread.Sleep(1500)
@@ -137,7 +130,7 @@
 
                 If Not bootstrap Then  'dont reload state.json if we're in bootstrap mode
                     Try
-                        xdoc = Newtonsoft.Json.JsonConvert.DeserializeXmlNode(wc.DownloadString("http://www.saltybet.com/state.json"), "saltybet")
+                        xdoc = Newtonsoft.Json.JsonConvert.DeserializeXmlNode(wc.DownloadString("https://www.saltybet.com/state.json"), "saltybet")
                     Catch ex As Exception
                         xdoc = Nothing
                     End Try
@@ -440,6 +433,14 @@
                             Console.Write("Automatic updates disabled")
                         End If
                         Console.CursorLeft = 0
+
+                    ElseIf tempkey.Key = ConsoleKey.R Then
+                        Console.ForegroundColor = ConsoleColor.Gray
+                        Console.BackgroundColor = ConsoleColor.Black
+                        Console.WriteLine("Prediction accuracy")
+                        For i = 0 To accuracies.Length - 1
+                            Console.WriteLine("{0,5}: {1:0.000000}", accuracytimeconstants(i), accuracies(i))
+                        Next
                     ElseIf tempkey.Key = ConsoleKey.C Then
                         Console.ForegroundColor = ConsoleColor.Gray
                         Console.BackgroundColor = ConsoleColor.Black
@@ -448,7 +449,7 @@
                             Dim rcount As Integer = 0
                             Dim j As Integer = 0
                             While j < TheList.Count
-                                If TheList(j).RD = 350 OrElse TheList(j).RD = 290.230506091092 OrElse TheList(j).K = 1500 OrElse TheList(j).K = 1662.2120026057642 OrElse TheList(j).K = 1337.7879973942358 OrElse (((match - TheList(j).LastMatch) > 60000) And (TheList(j).RD > 250)) Then
+                                If TheList(j).RD = 350 OrElse TheList(j).RD = 290.230506091092 OrElse TheList(j).K = 1500 OrElse TheList(j).K = 1662.2120026057642 OrElse TheList(j).K = 1337.7879973942358 Then
                                     TheList.RemoveAt(j)
                                     rcount += 1
                                 Else
@@ -633,6 +634,11 @@
         If remaining <> "" Then
             titlestr &= remaining
         End If
+
+        titlestr &= accuracies(0).ToString(" 0.000")
+        titlestr &= accuracies(3).ToString(" 0.000")
+        titlestr &= accuracies(6).ToString(" 0.000")
+
         Console.Title = titlestr
     End Sub
 
@@ -688,6 +694,14 @@
         Dim p1rdi As Double = p1.RD
         Dim p2rdi As Double = p2.RD
         Dim result As Integer                     'red, blue, draw
+        Dim expectedresult As Integer
+        If p1ki > p2ki Then
+            expectedresult = 1
+        ElseIf p2ki > p1ki Then
+            expectedresult = 2
+        Else
+            expectedresult = 3
+        End If
         Console.ForegroundColor = ConsoleColor.Gray
         Console.BackgroundColor = ConsoleColor.Black
         If scorestr = "" Then
@@ -806,6 +820,19 @@
         Console.Write("{0,4:+###;-###;0}", p2.RD - p2rdi)
         Console.ForegroundColor = ConsoleColor.Gray
         Console.Write(")" + vbCrLf)
+
+        ' Update prediction accuracies
+        Dim correct As Integer
+        If result = expectedresult Then
+            correct = 1
+        Else
+            correct = 0
+        End If
+        For i = 0 To accuracytimeconstants.Length - 1
+            Dim exp As Double = Math.Exp(1 / accuracytimeconstants(i))
+            accuracies(i) = accuracies(i) * (2 - exp) + correct * (exp - 1)
+        Next
+
     End Sub
 
     Private Sub DoMatchup(p1 As Glicko, p2 As Glicko, invcolors As Boolean, Optional skip As Boolean = False)
@@ -887,242 +914,6 @@
     End Function
 
 
-    Private Class Glicko
-        Enum Tiers
-            Unknown
-            Potato
-            B
-            A
-            S
-            X
-        End Enum
-
-        Property K As Double
-        Private _RD As Double
-        Property RD As Double
-            Set(value As Double)
-                If value < RDmin Then
-                    _RD = RDmin
-                Else
-                    _RD = value
-                End If
-            End Set
-            Get
-                Return _RD
-            End Get
-        End Property
-        Property Name As String
-        Property LastMatch As Long
-        Property Tier As Tiers = Tiers.Unknown
-        ReadOnly Property TierString As String
-            Get
-                Select Case Me.Tier
-                    Case Tiers.A
-                        Return "    A "
-                    Case Tiers.B
-                        Return "   B  "
-                    Case Tiers.Potato
-                        Return "  P   "
-                    Case Tiers.S
-                        Return "     S"
-                    Case Tiers.X
-                        Return " X    "
-                    Case Tiers.Unknown
-                        Return "U    "
-                End Select
-                Return ""
-            End Get
-        End Property
-        ReadOnly Property TierLetter As String
-            Get
-                Select Case Me.Tier
-                    Case Tiers.A
-                        Return "A"
-                    Case Tiers.B
-                        Return "B"
-                    Case Tiers.Potato
-                        Return "P"
-                    Case Tiers.S
-                        Return "S"
-                    Case Tiers.X
-                        Return "X"
-                    Case Tiers.Unknown
-                        Return "U"
-                End Select
-                Return ""
-            End Get
-        End Property
-
-        ''' <summary>
-        ''' Updates this Glicko rating after a match.  MAKE SURE TO COPY THE OPPONENT BEFORE UPDATING
-        ''' </summary>
-        ''' <param name="opp">Opponent that was faced</param>
-        ''' <param name="win">Did this Glicko win?  Draw=0.5</param>
-        ''' <param name="t">Match number of this match</param>
-        ''' <remarks></remarks>
-        Private Sub Update(opp() As Glicko, win() As Double, t As Long)
-            Dim E As Double = 0
-            Dim g As Double = 0
-            Dim dsum As Double = 0
-            Dim rsum As Double = 0
-
-            For i = 0 To opp.Count - 1
-                g = 1 / Math.Sqrt(1 + (3 * Math.Pow(q, 2) * Math.Pow(opp(i).RD, 2)) / Math.Pow(Math.PI, 2))
-                E = 1 / (1 + Math.Pow(10, (g * (Me.K - opp(i).K)) / -400))
-                dsum += Math.Pow(g, 2) * E * (1 - E)
-                rsum += g * (win(i) - E)
-            Next
-
-            Dim dsq As Double = Math.Pow(Math.Pow(q, 2) * dsum, -1)
-
-            Me.K = Me.K + (q / ((1 / Math.Pow(Me.RD, 2)) + (1 / dsq))) * rsum
-            Me.RD = Math.Max(Math.Sqrt(Math.Pow((1 / Math.Pow(Me.RD, 2)) + (1 / dsq), -1)), 30)
-            Me.LastMatch = t
-        End Sub
-
-        Public Shared Sub UpdateBatch(a As Glicko, b As Glicko, Acount As Integer, Bcount As Integer, t As Long, Optional Dcount As Integer = 0)
-            Dim total As Integer = Acount + Bcount + Dcount
-            Dim Aresults(total - 1) As Double
-            Dim aopps(total - 1) As Glicko
-            Dim Bresults(total - 1) As Double
-            Dim bopps(total - 1) As Glicko
-            Dim upset As Boolean = False
-            Dim confidence As Double = Conf(a, b)
-
-            Dim tempb As New Glicko("", -1)
-            tempb.K = b.K
-            tempb.RD = b.RD
-
-            For i = 0 To total - 1
-                aopps(i) = tempb
-                bopps(i) = a
-            Next
-            For i = 0 To Acount - 1
-                Aresults(i) = 1
-            Next
-
-            For i = Acount To Acount + Bcount - 1
-                Bresults(i) = 1
-            Next
-
-            For i = Acount + Bcount To total - 1
-                Aresults(i) = 0.5
-                Bresults(i) = 0.5
-            Next
-
-            If (Aresults.Average > 0.5 And b.K > a.K) Or (Bresults.Average > 0.5 And a.K > b.K) Then
-                upset = True
-            End If
-
-            b.Update(bopps, Bresults, t)
-            a.Update(aopps, Aresults, t)
-
-            'My custom RD-increasing function in case of upsets
-            'Note this increases after Glicko's decrease, so they oppose each other
-            'If upset = True Then
-            '    'U-factor is upset factor, the maximum possible increase in RD for a character if we trusted the results 100% accurately
-            '    Dim aUfactor As Double = u * a.RD * (confidence ^ e)
-            '    Dim bUfactor As Double = u * b.RD * (confidence ^ e)
-            '    'F-factor is the fluke factor, more rounds means it's less of a fluke and we should increase more
-            '    Dim Ffactor As Double = 1 - (1 / (Aresults.Count + f))
-            '    'C-factor is the closeness factor, close matches are weighted less (5-0 more increase than 5-4)
-            '    Dim Cfactor As Double = (Math.Max(Aresults.Average, Bresults.Average) - 0.5) * 2
-            '    a.RD = Math.Min(350, a.RD + (aUfactor * Ffactor * Cfactor))
-            '    b.RD = Math.Min(350, b.RD + (bUfactor * Ffactor * Cfactor))
-            'End If
-
-
-        End Sub
-
-        Public Shared Sub UpdateTiers(a As Glicko, b As Glicko)
-            If Now.DayOfWeek = DayOfWeek.Thursday And Now.Hour >= 18 And Now.Hour < 21 Then
-                'shaker classic
-                Exit Sub
-            End If
-
-            If a.Tier = Tiers.Unknown And b.Tier = Tiers.Unknown Then
-                Exit Sub
-            ElseIf a.Tier = Tiers.Unknown Then
-                a.Tier = b.Tier
-            ElseIf b.Tier = Tiers.Unknown Then
-                b.Tier = a.Tier
-            ElseIf b.Tier = a.Tier Then
-                Exit Sub
-            Else
-                a.Tier = Tiers.Unknown
-                b.Tier = Tiers.Unknown
-
-            End If
-            Save()
-        End Sub
-
-
-        ''' <summary>
-        ''' Time-decays RD in preperation for a match
-        ''' </summary>
-        ''' <param name="t">Current match number</param>
-        ''' <remarks></remarks>
-        Public Sub Prep(t As Long)
-            Me.RD = Math.Min(350, Math.Sqrt(Math.Pow(Me.RD, 2) + Math.Pow(c, 2) * (t - Me.LastMatch)))
-        End Sub
-
-        Public Sub New(name As String, t As Long)
-            Me.K = 1500
-            Me.RD = 350
-            Me.Name = name
-            Me.LastMatch = t
-        End Sub
-
-        Public Function GenerateXMLItem() As XElement
-            Dim ret As New XElement("glicko")
-            ret.SetAttributeValue("name", Me.Name)
-            ret.SetAttributeValue("k", Me.K)
-            ret.SetAttributeValue("rd", Me.RD)
-            ret.SetAttributeValue("lastmatch", Me.LastMatch)
-            ret.SetAttributeValue("tier", CInt(Me.Tier))
-            Return ret
-        End Function
-
-        Private Shared Function erf(x As Double) As Double
-            'Erf(x) approximation, max error 3e-7
-            Dim a1 As Double = 0.0705230784
-            Dim a2 As Double = 0.0422820123
-            Dim a3 As Double = 0.0092705272
-            Dim a4 As Double = 0.0001520143
-            Dim a5 As Double = 0.0002765672
-            Dim a6 As Double = 0.0000430638
-
-            a1 = a1 * x
-            a2 = a2 * (x ^ 2)
-            a3 = a3 * (x ^ 3)
-            a4 = a4 * (x ^ 4)
-            a5 = a5 * (x ^ 5)
-            a6 = a6 * (x ^ 6)
-            Return 1 - (1 / ((1 + a1 + a2 + a3 + a4 + a5 + a6) ^ 16))
-        End Function
-
-        Private Shared Function CDF(x As Double, mu As Double, sigma As Double) As Double
-            Return 0.5 * (1 + erf((x - mu) / (sigma * Math.Sqrt(2))))
-        End Function
-
-        Private Shared Function StdNorm(x As Double) As Double
-            Return Math.Exp(-0.5 * (x ^ 2)) / (Math.Sqrt(2 * Math.PI))
-        End Function
-
-        Private Shared Function Norm(x As Double, mu As Double, sigma As Double) As Double
-            Return (1 / sigma) * StdNorm((x - mu) / sigma)
-        End Function
-
-        Public Shared Function Conf(a As Glicko, b As Glicko) As Double
-            Dim sum As Double
-            For i = 0 To 3000 Step 1
-                sum += Math.Max(Norm(i, a.K, a.RD) - Norm(i, b.K, b.RD), 0)
-            Next
-            Return sum
-        End Function
-
-    End Class
-
     Private Sub Save()
         Dim thr As New Threading.Thread(AddressOf SaveDelegate)
         thr.Start()
@@ -1141,29 +932,41 @@
         Next
         xd.Add(New XElement("watching", watching.ToString))
         xd.Add(New XElement("autoupdate", autoupdate.ToString))
-        xd.Save("data.xml")
+        For i = 0 To accuracies.Length - 1
+            xd.Add(New XElement("accuracy" & accuracytimeconstants(i), CStr(accuracies(i))))
+        Next
+        xd.Save(dbfilename)
     End Sub
 
     Private Sub Load()
-        If Not FileIO.FileSystem.FileExists("data.xml") Then
+        If Not FileIO.FileSystem.FileExists(dbfilename) Then
             Exit Sub
         End If
         Dim xd As New XDocument
-        xd = XDocument.Load("data.xml")
+        xd = XDocument.Load(dbfilename)
         match = CLng(xd.<PepperBet>.<count>.First.Value)
 
         For Each x In xd.<PepperBet>.<name>
             names.Add(x.Value)
         Next
+
         Try
             watching = CBool(xd.<PepperBet>.<watching>.Value)
         Catch
         End Try
+
         Try
             autoupdate = CBool(xd.<PepperBet>.<autoupdate>.Value)
         Catch
         End Try
 
+        Try
+            For i = 0 To accuracies.Length - 1
+                accuracies(i) = CDbl(xd.Root.Element("accuracy" & accuracytimeconstants(i)).Value)
+            Next
+        Catch
+        End Try
+
         For Each x In xd.<PepperBet>.<glicko>
             Dim temp As New Glicko(x.@name, CLng(x.@lastmatch))
             temp.K = CDbl(x.@k)
@@ -1244,6 +1047,7 @@
         Console.WriteLine("[Enter/Esc] Enter/exit manual data entry")
         Console.WriteLine("[Q]uery database")
         Console.WriteLine("[C]leanup database")
+        Console.WriteLine("[R]eport accuracy")
         Console.WriteLine("[N]ames (for bet watching)")
         Console.WriteLine("[W]atch display toggle")
         Console.WriteLine("[A]utomatic updates toggle")

PepperBet/PepperBet.vbproj

@@ -49,6 +49,28 @@
   <PropertyGroup>
     <OptionInfer>On</OptionInfer>
   </PropertyGroup>
+  <PropertyGroup Condition="'$(Configuration)|$(Platform)' == 'Debug|AnyCPU'">
+    <DebugSymbols>true</DebugSymbols>
+    <DefineDebug>true</DefineDebug>
+    <DefineTrace>true</DefineTrace>
+    <OutputPath>bin\Debug\</OutputPath>
+    <DocumentationFile>PepperBet.xml</DocumentationFile>
+    <NoWarn>42016,41999,42017,42018,42019,42032,42036,42020,42021,42022</NoWarn>
+    <DebugType>full</DebugType>
+    <PlatformTarget>AnyCPU</PlatformTarget>
+    <CodeAnalysisFailOnMissingRules>false</CodeAnalysisFailOnMissingRules>
+  </PropertyGroup>
+  <PropertyGroup Condition="'$(Configuration)|$(Platform)' == 'Release|AnyCPU'">
+    <DefineTrace>true</DefineTrace>
+    <OutputPath>bin\Release\</OutputPath>
+    <DocumentationFile>PepperBet.xml</DocumentationFile>
+    <Optimize>true</Optimize>
+    <NoWarn>42016,41999,42017,42018,42019,42032,42036,42020,42021,42022</NoWarn>
+    <DebugType>pdbonly</DebugType>
+    <PlatformTarget>AnyCPU</PlatformTarget>
+    <CodeAnalysisIgnoreBuiltInRuleSets>false</CodeAnalysisIgnoreBuiltInRuleSets>
+    <CodeAnalysisIgnoreBuiltInRules>false</CodeAnalysisIgnoreBuiltInRules>
+  </PropertyGroup>
   <ItemGroup>
     <Reference Include="Newtonsoft.Json, Version=4.5.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=30ad4fe6b2a6aeed, processorArchitecture=MSIL">
       <SpecificVersion>False</SpecificVersion>
@@ -75,6 +97,7 @@
     <Import Include="System.Xml.Linq" />
   </ItemGroup>
   <ItemGroup>
+    <Compile Include="Glicko.vb" />
     <Compile Include="PepperBet.vb" />
     <Compile Include="My Project\AssemblyInfo.vb" />
     <Compile Include="My Project\Application.Designer.vb">

PepperBet/version.txt

@@ -1 +1 @@
-1.9.12
+1.10